Are the Relations Between Saudi Arabia and USA Getting Strained?

Prof Dr Colonel (Retired) K Prabhakar Rao

Saudi Arabia has been a staunch ally of America in the Middle East region and has stood test of time. It has offered Military base for the US forces on its soil. It has been the launching ground for the US led offensive against Iraq during the 1991 Kuwait war during the tenure of senior Bush as the President of USA.. Saddam Hussein the erstwhile strong ruler of Middle East who invaded Kuwait after Iraq -Iran war of eight years was shown his place and was driven out of Kuwait. Saudi Arabia stood by America in the war. In the US led war against Iraq after 9/11 attack on US main land, Saudi Arabia was the strong American base. It supported the US led war against the terrorists of Al Qaeda and Saadmm Hussein. However in recent times there have been some rumblings and some deviation is attributed to the Saudi Arabian rulers from their pro American erstwhile policies.

In the recent conflict between Israel and Lebanon based Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia made some moves that were highlighted by the third world press as if a strong Arab unity was emerging that would take-on Western domination in the region. Egypt too played similar moves showing solidarity with Lebanon. The third world press draws premature conclusions that Saudi Arabian, Egyptian, and Jordanian Governments which are in the American camp were compelled to express solidarity with Hezbollah and placate Sunni masses on the streets at the claimed falsified Hezbollah victory. Few rocket strikes on Israel here and there and successful strike on Israeli battle ship at Haifa and survival of the terrorist outfit Hezbollah’s strong man Syed Hasan Nasrallh are cited with beating of chests as a great victory in this conflict. In this context, Saudi Arabian Fatwa is being quoted that asked Sunni Muslims not to support Hezbollah. However this was subsequently withdrawn or not followed up for strict implementation. The visit of brother of Egyptian President Hoshni Mubarak to Beirut in the middle of war to offer support to the war by Hezbollah is also seen as the Arab unity in recent times (1)

Third world press claims that American policy in Middle East is in free fall, its crucial support system knocked out by the most trusted Arab ally Saudi Arabia in the region. The press with glee has highlighted that King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz of Saudi Arabia has stated at the Arab summit in Riyadh that the Anglo American Occupation of Iraq was illegal. He said, “In beloved Iraq, blood flows between brothers in the shadow of illegitimate foreign occupation and hateful sectarianism….. we will not allow forces outside the region to determine the future of the region” (2). This is being interpreted as if America has lost the support of Saudi Arabia and that it has been identified as a devil in the region. These critics wishfully think that the days of America are numbered in the world and that very soon Saudi Arabia would send Americans from their country too. It is a very common practice in Indian press to highlight any small thing to highlight as American failure and project it as the cruelest and as a devil incarnate in the entire world.

Unfortunately these occasional utterances no way spell out the actual policy of Saudi rulers and they can not exist without support of West. Their oil exploration and development is solely based on Western support and militarily they are weak. They would be soon swallowed by the more militarily dominant Iran without American support. This Saudi Arabian show of occasional solidarity with Arab world is a common show probably to keep other Arabs in good humor and to keep alive their Arab origins.

However, according to a senior American official, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah has warned Vice President Dick Cheney that Saudi Arabia would back the Sunnis if the United States pulls out of Iraq. The official said the king "read the riot act" to the vice president when the two met last month in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. The New York Times first reported the conversation saying Saudi support would include financial backing for minority Sunnis in the event of a civil war between them and Iraq's Shiite majority. Thus Saudi Arabia is much against in summary withdrawal of US forces from Iraq. Iraq Study Group also asserted that Saudi private citizens, and probably a few members of the Saudi royal family, have been financing the Sunni opposition in Iraq all along. This is the same opposition that is targeting U.S. troops. Last week, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah confirmed that his loyalty must lie with Iraq's Sunni tribal chiefs, even if his support also helps insurgents who have been fighting Americans and the Britons (3).
Early in November, National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, in a memo reportedly leaked to the press recommended that Saudi Arabia play a leadership role in talks about Iraq's future. But even before the memo landed on President George W Bush's White House desk, the Saudis were moving themselves in to the arena of Middle East conflict to directly influence strategy in Iraq. The Saudis are clear about their bottom line: If the United States isn't careful about withdrawing from Iraq, the Sunni kingdom will have no other choice but to arm Iraqi's Sunnis, especially if the Saudi's arch-rival, Iran, which has already destabilized the regional power equilibrium by launching a nuclear program, rushes into a military vacuum left by the Americans.

Thus Saudis are much worried about dominance by Iran, a Shiite power once USA withdraws. Under no circumstances, Saudi King wants to be dictated by Iran’s fundamentalist Sunni hating Mullahs and the world will not be surprised if it bids for nuclear programme and ultimately project and lead the Sunni Bomb against Iran’s Shia Bomb (4). Saudi Arabian statements are expressive of the king’s worry over the Shiite Iran inspired domination in the region and can not be seen as a shift in the policy of the Saudi Government. In his meeting with Cheney, the Saudi king voiced strong opposition to talks between the United States and Iran, which has a majority Shiite population. The king reportedly told Dick Cheney that Sunni Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, believed that talking to Iran was dangerous. Saudi Arabia as a Sunni State is very apprehensive of Iran in the region and wants to play a leading role if America withdraws from Iraq. This does not mean that Saudi King is turning hostile towards USA as wishfully believed by some arm chair bound drawing room strategists.

Nuclear technology is an important technology to have for generating power," said Prince Saud- al-Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, at the conclusion of the summit meeting, "and the Gulf States will need it equally."
Few observers doubt that promoting the idea of a joint atomic energy program between the predominantly Sunni Arab states is a way for Saudi Arabia to send a message to the United States that the Arab state will match Tehran's nuclear power if it needs to in a changed scenario in Middle East. The fears are not unfounded by these States. They have to match Iran’s threat in the region and to their countries. This is more so important because President of Iran in no uncertain terms has declared openly several times that he will not hesitate in using the weapons and that he would destroy Israel. Such provocative utterances can not be brushed aside as mere out bursts from a frustrated soul and indicates the threats that are likely to dawn on the region. These threats can not be taken lightly and other nations automatically crave for their defensive needs. Saudi Arabia thus would work towards a Sunni Bomb or would clamor for US protection and citing of American nuclear weapons in the region in different American friendly countries. Iran thus becomes the focal point and the world peace would be precariously balanced in the region and a small spark would be just sufficient to cause major crisis. The message has gone home in Washington. In such a case, will America withdraw from Iraq and leave the region to be a battle ground for nuclear Shia power and the Sunni Arabs with a Sunni Bomb? This would be much more destabilizing factor in Middle East than the current conflict in Iraq.

One of the greatest set back after Iraq war, is the elimination of a strong power in the region that countered Mullah dominated fundamentalist Iran. Saddam Hussein was not considered a fundamentalist in real sense like Taliban or AlQaeda, although he waged long wars with Shiite Iran. Iran’s threat and rise was balanced by Saddam Hussein. The third world press foresees a puppet pro- American regime in Iraq in future. America is stressing for democratic regimes throughout the world. However it has faltered in the case of Pakistan where military dictatorship has been supported by the American government. This is because a known devil is better than unknown devil. Pakistan is reportedly threatened by fundamentalist Mullahs who are the typical Asian Taliban ( Taliban are a sect of Wahaabi sect) who are waiting in the wings and itching to take over and control the much coveted nuclear bombs in the store of Pakistan when the military rule fails in the country. President Musharraf always blackmails USA on this account and is able to stay on right side of President George W Bush inspite of being accused as the abettor of international terrorism (5) (6). Therefore, America has no alternative except to safeguard the military regimes in Pakistan with a hope to keep away Mullahs and fundamentalists from the power that would bring chaos and destruction to the world.

However, the Saudi Arabia’s king’s tough words to Vice President Dick Cheney don't mean Saudi support for the United States is wavering, said Richard Murphy, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia. A senior U.S. official said the conversation between Cheney and King Abdullah reflects the "anxiety about the situation" and the Saudi concern about being left "high and dry" if the United States leaves Iraq. The Saudi king told Dick Cheney that his country would be forced to step in and support "like-minded Sunni Arabs" if the situation in Iraq deteriorated and the Sunnis' safety was in danger, as per the senior U.S. official (7). The source said the king did not mean to imply that Saudi Arabia would support and embrace Al Qaeda in Iraq, but rather tribal groups. Although Saudi rulers inspire Wahabism, as responsible rulers their association with Al Qaeda is not foreseen. However, some of those groups overlap with insurgents who are fighting Americans, the source conceded. The Statements of Saudi King of supporting Sunni sect in Iraq thus should not be seen as a support for AlQaeda in the region. The intentions are to counter Shiite dominance in the region led by Iran. However President George W Bush is equally concerned and is unwilling to withdraw from Iraq without establishing order and efforts are on the rise in this direction. Democrats however are high up in arms against the president and are leaving no stone unturned in preventing the president from having his way. It is most unlikely that Saudi Arabia would leave the friendly and safe hand of America and get entangled in a serious conflict with Iran on its own. Saudi Arabia is militarily weak and needs major protection for its progress and safety. As a single country, it is no match for Iran. It has to form a group with like minded Sunni States. For them America is the safest bet.

Bibliography

1. Prof Dr Colonel (retired) K Prabhakar Rao, Are Arabs regrouping to destroy Israel? www.faithCommons.org, November 24, 2006, 08:58

2. M J Akbar, Double or quits, Deccan Chronicle, Hyderabad, AP, India, Date April 1, 2007, PP 6

3. New America Media, http://72.14.235.104/search?q=cache:PN0-2zAiyf4J:news.newamericamedia.org

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4.Prof Dr Colonel ( Retired) K Prabhakar Rao. The Sunni Bomb, www.faithcommons.org, April 19, 2007 - 08:36.

5.Prof Dr Colonel ( Retired) K Prabhakar Rao, Pakistan cornered, www.faithcommons.org,March 07, 2007, 09:01

6. Prof Dr Colonel ( Retired) K Prabhakar Rao, Is the seat of General Musharraf shaking? www.faithcommons.org March, 19, 2007, 09:31

7. Saudis to back Sunnis if US leaves Iraq, Iraq, Transition of power, http://www.google.com/search?

sourceid=navclient&aq=t&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1T4SUNA_en___IN206&q=IS+Saudi+arabia+drifting+away+from+USA

RELATED LINKS

www.faithCommons.org

By

Prof Dr Colonel (Retired) K Prabhakar Rao

1. Middle East the ever boiling cauldron with hared towards the west, October 16, 2006, 07:18

2. Nuclear threat and Israel, October 19, 2006, 13:18

3. Iran the Damocles’ sword on Israel and USA. November 03, 2006, 09:11

4. Are Arabs regrouping to destroy Israel? November 24, 2006, 08:58

5. American policy in the Middle East after Republican Party debacle, November 25, 2006, 07:07

6. Iraq a pain in the neck for USA, December 03, 2006, 15:53

7. Is Iran going to be a nuclear reality? December 05, 2006, 12:14

8. The American President uneasy. January 30, 200, 10:22

9. Iran Heating up, February, February 28, 2007, 11:31

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