Nexus of North Korea and Iran Could Be Dangerous to USA

Prof Dr Colonel (Retired) K Prabhakar Rao

There is a popular saying that birds of same feather flock together. How truly said? North Korea and Iran are entirely different in race, culture, religion, social life and mind- set apart from being separated by thousands of miles from each other. What made them to become bosom friends rubbing shoulders with each other in modern times? It is strange that an Islamic fundamentalist country under Mullahs like Iran chose to align along the side of non- believers who practice Buddhism, rather idol worship although Buddhism rejects the practice as per the teachings of Buddha. Buddhism in original form is extinct today and they turned into idol worshippers. The only reason for them to get close and become palls is the strong hatred towards Americans, in straight and simple terms. Both these nations consider America as their staunch enemy.

Immediately after World War II, the entire world has been divided into two distinct blocks. One represented capitalist society represented by America and the other a communist society led by Soviet Union. Most of the countries fell in line with one or other. Most of the Arab nations were under Western influence although USSR was making efforts to win over some of them. Iraq under General Abdul Karim Kasim who deposed ruler Farukh II in a military coup in 1958 favored Communist co operation. It was the period of cold war. USA and USSR vied with each other for domination of the world. India which gained independence in 1947 was overtaken by socialist phobia and fell out from America. India fundamentally suffered from the feeling of a wronged nation at the hands of whites having undergone long British rule. Although there was no walking into camp of USSR by India openly, the tilt was very obvious and US automatically patronized Pakistan as a strategic balance (1). Pakistan, a good opportunist caught hold of American hand firmly and is continuing to be the camp follower of USA. The relations between USA and India have seen many ups and downs and for most of the time were far from cordial. India spearheaded Non Aligned Movement (NAM) founded along with Sukarno of Indonesia, President Kwame Nkrumah of Ghana , Marshal Tito of Yugoslavia and Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt. The membership of nations rose from initial 25 to 120. The aims were peaceful co- existence and avoiding war. In real sense, however there was some alignment of all these countries with one or the other. They also fought war amongst themselves making a joke of the NAM. In the words of Mr Ram Jethmalani, a distinguished Indian lawyer and statesman, the idea was to commit to neither side in the cold war, but to leave open the possibility of such commitment. That way if pressure from one super power became too great, a smaller power would defend itself by threatening to align with the other super power (2). However outwardly they boasted to be non- aligned. The NAM is based on false foundations in modern world where alignment is essential and the movement has literally died and it is a dead horse probably stinking too.

Inspite of being the close friend of USSR, India hardly received any support from USSR during Chinese aggression of October 20, 1962. Indian Territory was overrun owing to the border dispute and large areas of Aksai chin in North and North Eastern Frontier Areas were occupied by the Chinese. India miserably lost the war and many soldiers of Indian Army that was poorly equipped and unprepared were killed in the unfortunate war. It was a national disgrace and shame. India supported China in all international forums and projected itself as the self styled apostle of peace. Slogan “Hindi Chini Bhai.. Bhai (Hindus and Chinese are brothers)” was the daily affair from India under the distinguished Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru. India still was very much under the hang over of Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi, the father of nation who preached peace but was shot dead by his own country man. India went around the world preaching sermons of peace to all and sundry whether they liked or not. Yet it became a victim of violence and armed aggression. There was too much of shoulder rubbing with China by India. The war with China was the mirror reflection of failure of foreign policy of the Prime Minister Nehru who although had a towering personality, but failed to see the danger to India. The war came to halt only when dynamic American President John F Kennedy in stern voice declared on November 20, 1962 that unless Chinese declared immediate ceasefire and stopped aggression, the hand of the President of United States of America would be forced. The Chinese army was at the outer edges of Tezpur in foot hills in Assam province of India which is in the plains. This had a magic effect and a unilateral ceasefire was declared by the Chinese and war ended immediately when Chinese declared ceasefire on October 21, 1962 (3). It was only America and Israel whch came to the rescue of India in the national crisis and calamity. None bothered. India was left high and dry. Soviets considered as Buddies for nearly fifteen years after gaining independence, kept aloof during the crisis. China and USSR being Communist nations, it was probably obliged to keep aloof although there was some kind of friction between them. As a big brother to China, Soviets had to give a cold shoulder to India during Chinese war with India in 1962. Nehru soon died of consequent depleted health and shock in 1964.

North Korean hatred towards America is the result of Korean War which was spearheaded by USA. At the end of World War II, Korea was under the occupation and influence of Russians and Americans and 38 degrees latitude was the dividing line between the Communist dominated North and South under the influence of Americans. Two nations were thus formed as they could not unite inspite of efforts owing to ideological differences and external influences. Korean War started when North Korea invaded South Korea on June 25, 1950. The allied forces under the directions of UNO and command of legendary General Macarthur drove North Koreans back. The coalition forces entered North Korea and the enemy forces were driven up to Yalu River. There was an immediate Chinese involvement and war became complex. As China was not the member of UN, it was not possible to take action against China. The conflicts ended with ceasefire in April 1952 and complete peace was restored in 1953 and war finally ended. UN failed to achieve unification of both countries although it successfully resolved the conflict. This was the first time UNO ordered military action against a country. UNO at present is seen as a defanged serpent, powerless and wavering. Thus, North Korea became a bitter enemy of America (4). It seeks unification of the two nations and its ruler Kim Sung II initiated nuclear programme and claimed that it was essential for unification of both the nations (5). It also developed ballistic missiles and it is feared that such missiles would be able to reach US main land in Alaska. North Korea test fired it’s ballistic missile on July 5, 2006, during US independence day celebrations. This was definitely a provocative action on the part of North Korea. Before the missile was fired USA has contemplated shooting down such missiles over Pacific by using its highly sophisticated Anti Missile Defense system. This is because North Korea was highly secretive about the launch and it could be a space launch or even an attack.. Robert Einhorn, a senior adviser at the center for Strategic and International Studies, said a US shoot down of a North Korean missile on a test flight or a space launch would draw very strong international reaction against America. He saw a very small chance that US would shoot such missile (6). In the words of Lt Col Gordon Cucullu, “according to reports out of North Korea, not only were the Iranian observers –primary scientists and engineers present at the multiple missile launches that the leaders flung in general directions towards Japan, Iran might have even paid for these launches”. He observed “One of the major weaknesses in intelligence wings in the west is the inability to see big pictures. Think more about recent egregious examples: secular Muslims don’t work with Al Qaeda religious zealots, Saddam did not have WMD, Sunnis and Shia can not work together, Korean and Middle Easterners don’t work together and so on. These arbitrary and artificial boundaries in our thinking and analysis must be shed and changed quickly before we fall into calculated trap being set for us by our sworn enemies. We must recognize the deadly connections and react accordingly. A conventional surprise like 9/11, 2001 was painful. Allowing a nuclear surprise is unacceptable” (7). A nuclear North Korea with missile forces is equally dangerous to Japan and USA has to protect Japan’s interests. Washington also accused Iranian officials of being present at the latest launching of missiles escalating US suspicions of sensitive military co-operation between the Islamic State and North Korea. Iran’s presence at the missile launches was raised by Republican Senator George Allen who asked Assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific affairs Christopher Hill ,”Mr. Hill whether it was not a great concern that Tehran has military ties with Pyongyang( North Korea)” (8).

Iran harbors deep grudge against Americans and cites it’s interference in its affairs since 1953 when it’s nationalist government of Mohammed Mossadeq was overthrown by externally –scripted actions. Americans are also highly fixated by the hostage crisis of 1980 immediately after revolution by Mullahs over throwing Shah Pehalwi. Iran is critical of US inspired eight year war on Iran by Saddam Hussein immediately after revolution. It is much cut up that Iran has been used as a pawn in 20 th century world politics and the country suffered.

Iran’s nuclear ambition is traced to the days of the 1979 Islamic revolution. As per Nazila Fathi, a forgotten letter in which the founder and leader of revolution of 1979, Ayotullah Ruhollah Khomeini cited a need for nuclear weapons has started a debate over whether negotiations should be conducted with West and raised questions about Iran’s nuclear intentions(9). The letter earlier published elsewhere was written in 1988 when the war with Iraq was coming to an end and this letter was quoted by former President of Iran, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. He was trying to defend himself from his adversaries on the charges of calling off the war when it was about to win. Thus Iran’s quest for Nuclear weapons for offensive use stands proved. The letter obviously highlights the need for Nuclear weapons either as a deterrent or for use in case of the long standing war with Iraq and neither side was in a winning position completely.

Another aspect with Nuclear weapons is the trigger happiness of the owner. It was used for the first time in the World War II to terminate the war quickly and President Harry Truman took a very difficult and historical decision to drop the atom bombs on Japan and it really ended the war. However in subsequent wars fought by USA such as Korean War, Vietnam war, Iraq wars of 1991, 2003, Afghan war against Al Qaeda in 2001 America has shown great restraint in its policies. If wanted, it could have dropped nuclear weapons on Tora Bora caves and the surroundings and got rid off the entire Al Qaeda leadership. Passions rose very high after Sept, attacks on WTC and Pentagon by Al Qaeda terrorists. This shows that America has been very judicious in respect of nuclear weapons and never threatened to use them against It’s adversary even in grave provocation while it would be opposite in case of Islamic powers. Every Islamic power sees USA as its arch enemy and tries to acquire nuclear weapon unless it comes under protection of USA and aligns with it like Saudi Arabia, Jordon, Egypt etc. Similarly former USSR and China demonstrated restraint. During Cuban crisis Soviet Nuclear weapons were to be sited in Cuba and these posed great threat to US main land. It was the tough handling by President John F Kennedy that these missiles were taken away by Soviets from Cuba. Or else these missiles would have posed very great threat to USA. India having acquired nuclear capability and weapons did not black mail Pakistan or threatened to use them in wars against the enemy while Pakistan boasted that it kept its nuclear options open. Iran openly declared that once it acquired the nuclear weapon, it would drop it on Israel and wipe it off from the earth. Its president Mahmoud Ahmedinejad provocatively declared that he would destroy Israel once he acquires the nuclear weapon (10) (11). Thus American concern for provocative Iran is well justified and US actions seeking to limit power of Iran and cut it to size is very much within limits. No one can find fault on this account. Every country has a right to protect itself against threat of the enemy. Iran in its quest for acquiring nuclear capability found a helping hand in fundamentalists in Pakistan. Iran and North Korea along with Libya that feel wronged by America could win over the Pakistani scientists who violated proliferation regulations with respect to nuclear technology. The transfer of Nuclear bomb technology to Iran, North Korea and Libya with respect to Uranium enrichment centrifuges and bomb know how was done during 1987-2003. Although scientist A Q Khan and his fellow scientists are charged for the great crime, it is believed that Pakistan military and intelligence are responsible for this crime. Finally Pakistan has closed all the investigations and also the case. The culprits have been protected from international investigators. There is a general agreement that Pakistan had done more damage to world peace than any other nation. It had passed the nuclear technology to other roguish nations violating international norms and has abetted terrorism. It has harbored Al Qaeda and Talibanised Afghanistan. It is sheltering all types of mischief makers in the world. Most of the UK hijack plotters are of Pakistani origin. The finger of accusation is pointing towards Pakistan for all the international mischief, terrorism and theft of nuclear secrets. Yet it is being sheltered by USA as a global strategy and to keep India under check. This has been the policy from the beginning and in the long run, the interests of the world have been damaged. In fact Pakistan has done more damage to USA than any other nation. In the words of Brahma Chellaney writing in Deccan Chronicle, there is a long history to Pakistan’s nuclear mendacity, aided by America’s pursuit of politically expedient foreign policy goals. By white washing Islamabd’s official complicity in the sale of nuclear secrets, the US can only spur more rogue proliferation in the future (12). It is time to call a spade a spade. The fact is that the failures of Pakistan has resulted in North Korea getting its bomb and Iran has got the know how. It is not yet sure how far the Iran is from the bomb. Investigative journalist Seymour Hersh while writing in New Yorker magazine has revealed that CIA was not sure about Iran’s nuclear weapons and that no concreted and sure evidence was found. Seymour Hersh was of opinion that in the view of defeat of Republican Party in all probabilities, the Government of President George Bush was using the threat of Iran as a bogey to attack Iran similar to the attack on Iraq to bolster the eroded prestige. It was also stated that inspite of the majority of Democrats in both houses, President would be able to reject any such obstacle from Congress and could still let go the attack on Iran. American intelligence is not very sure on this aspect. It is claimed that CIA report is an obstacle to President George W Bush for going against Iran with a hammer and tong (13). Iran has been stubbornly opposing all proposals of six countries such as USA, France, UK, and Russia, Germany and China to halt and abandon its nuclear program. Its association with North Korea on military matters has been established. Iran has missile forces and both these nations co operated with each other on the development of missiles that North Korea tested. The nexus of North Korea and Iran pose considerable threat to US interests and security. North Korea can reach Alaska and Japan with present capability of missile development and in future with improved ballistic missiles with higher range can threaten State of California. Although such direct missile flights carrying weapons are risky and can be tracked and destroyed in the flight by US anti missile forces, the threat of smuggling these weapons across sea in to US port city can not be ruled out. Iran with nuclear weapons would turn into a regional bully in Middle East and the survival of Israel would be at stake. US and Israel being strong allies, USA would be automatically drawn into any such conflict into Middle East. Iran would not be in a position to launch its missiles with nuclear war heads on to US main land. But it can seriously threaten Israel and damage US interests and US bases in near by places in Saudi Arabia and in Middle East region. North Korea with nuclear weapon would try to bully South Korea and Japan and there will be always some pressure in the pacific sector while Iran and other allied terrorist groups would endanger Israel and smuggle a bomb into Atlantic port cities. New York would always be the preferred target as it represents American identity with statue of liberty. Iran and North Korea in nexus can create simultaneous situations causing concern to USA and it has deal at two far flung fronts.

There is a saying that one’s enemy must be cut to size or destroyed before it becomes too powerful. There is also another saying that a small snake also should be killed with a strong and long stick. Iran no doubt would become a great menace to US safety and interests and it is craving for revenge against West particularly against USA. However at present US is not in happy position with involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan where wars are not yet over and world opinion by and large has been against these long drawn conflicts and escalation of sectarian conflicts among Muslims in these countries. Back at home American nation is divided on the war on terror. Democrats have gained majority based on the war on Iraq. It is expected that there would be cuts in this war. Democrats probably want self withdrawal into a cocoon. Can USA afford to take on Iran militarily at present with Congress backtracking? Complete invasion of Iran by land, air and sea would be a very major war and this would probably turn into third World War. Iran is not a small country and has sizeable population and is the den of fundamentalists. Insurgency could develop in Iran too against the occupational forces in case of invasion of Iran. Most of the nations are reluctant to use force against Iran being a bulk oil producing country. Iran exploits this situation and is defying world opinion. One of the important options that USA has is to seek a change in regime in Iran where Mullahs can be replaced by an effective democracy. The other option is to continue pressurizing Iran with international sanctions as still it is a part of NPT. These efforts are going on. If Iran chooses to be out of NPT, it can develop its bomb and drive out inspectors of International atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) like North Korea did. Iran in such case would invite war from international allies and this would be inevitable. However USA has not attacked North Korea although they were very close to their bomb. US only did some saber rattling. One of the reason is North Korea is a very small country and is beleaguered by many international sanctions. Secondly is due to potential Chinese involvement that is close by and at present US enjoys good relations with China and US economy is highly influenced by Chinese goods. Military option should be the last and should be decisive. But Iran and North Korea are not alike. Iran is a large State as stated earlier with sizeable population and resources including man power. The war can not be a limited war like in Iraq and has to be full scaled invasion in full strength by USA and the coalition forces. This would result in full occupation of Iran and taking away all the nuclear facilities in the country. One of the aims of the war would be change of present regime of Mullahs, restoration of true democracy and the country has to be under all time observation by UN with occupational forces like Japan after World War II. Another option is to unleash massive air strikes on Iran’s facilities and nuclear infrastructure to break its will and bring it on to the knees. Can USA take up these under present situation? The fact is that North Korea and Iran are in league and hand in gloves on nuclear co operation. Iran also can buy a bomb from North Korea and Pakistan too. This has to be prevented at all costs by USA and its allies. The nexus is dangerous not only to US but also to entire world. This has to be stopped at all costs. President George W Bush has two years in office amidst lot of opposition from Democrats. The next President after two years would be most likely from Democrat party. If the policy of offensive defense as practiced by George Bush is not continued, America would be in grave danger and terrorist would dominate USA. Terrorists only understand the language of President George W Bush. Expecting Iran and North Korea would see reason and come to discussion tables in earnest spirit amounts to living in fool’s paradise.

Bibliography

1, Edited by SV Suresh, Year book 2002, , India and foreign relations, New Vision Publications, 71 SRT, Vidya nagar, Hyderabad, AP, India, 500044, PP 155-159

2 RamJethmalani, NAM is dead, Deccan Chronicle, Hyderabad, AP, India, Date September 8, 2006, PP 7

3 N Jayapalan, India and her neighbors, Atlantic publishers and distributors, , B 2 Vishal enclave,Opposite Rajouri garden, New Delhi-27, 2000, PP 16-17

4. M Narsimha Rao, M Venkateshwar Rao, A Ranga Rao, A Chenchiah, R Varalaxmi, Modern world History, Telugu Academy, Hyderabad, AP, India, 2000, PP 313,314

5. Donald Greenless, (International Herald Tribune) How North Korea fulfilled nuclear quest, Deccan chronicle, Hyderabad, AP, India, Date October 26, 2006, PP 13

6. Robert Burns, US may shoot down N Korea test missile, Deccan chronicle. Hyderabad, AP, India, Date June 22, 2006, PP 15

7. Lt Col Gordon Cucullu, Nuclear nexus, as cited in Other comments, Forbes, ISSN 0015 6914, Volume 178, Number 3, August 14, 2006, PP 32

8. From Washington, US: Iranians were at N.Korean missile launch, Deccan Chronicle, Hyderabad, AP, India, Date July 22, 2006, PP 9

9. Nazila Fathi ( New York Times service),The Big story/Iran, Khomeini cited need for nukes in letter, Deccan chronicle, Hyderabad, AP, India, Date October 6, 2006, PP 11

10.Editorial, Total evacuation is the only solution, Radiance Views weekly, Published by Board of Islamic publications, New Delhi, India, Volume XL, No 25, Dated 6-12 Nov 2005, PP5

11. Sheikh Mohammed Mahmood Siyam, Palestine movement is on the true line of Islamic Jihad, Submitted by Correspondent, Radiance Views weekly, and Published by Board of Islamic publications, New Delhi, India, Volume XL, No 28, Dated 27 Nov- 3 Dec 2005, PP14

12. Brahma Chellaney, Burial of Pak nuclear scandal, Deccan chronicle, Hyderabad, AP, India, Date May 6, 2006, PP 7

13. Seymore Hesh, There is no trace of nuclear weapons in Iran, New Yorker, and Date September 27, 2006 as cited in Eenadu, Hyderabad, AP, India, and November 20, 2006.

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