Nuclear Threat And Israel

In 1954, Einstein declared few months before he died “ I made mistake in my life when I signed that letter to President Roosevelt to see that atom bomb is made, but there was some justification; the danger that the Germans would make them” (1). Internationally reputed men such as Bertrand Russel, Leoszilard, Glenn Seaborg, Robert Oppenheimer, and Enrioco Fermi expressed serious concerns against the development of nuclear weapons along with Einstein and cautioned the world about the grave danger to humanity. But all these were of no avail. The Bomb was developed and also used against Japan in World War II causing great loss of life. Of course, it brought World War II to the end. The rat race for the Bomb began. Very soon United Kingdom, France, Russia, China also developed nuclear weapons followed by India, Pakistan. South Africa too developed it’s capability along with Israel. At present, Iran and North Korea are feverishly following their program to join the nuclear club.

Israel has made it clear that it has a bomb in it’s basement as a deterrent to it’s enemies in Middle East. Israel’s nuclear mission was seen through to safety by Ben Gurian, the dynamic former Prime Minister of Israel before strict international checks were implemented during the regime of President Nixon and Henry Kissinger of US who changed criteria for friendly countries and allowed them to refrain from nuclear proliferation treaty. On Sept 22, 1979 before 1 AM GMT, Vela type satellites of USA photographed double flashes over Indian Ocean similar to tests conducted by China and France. It was claimed that the logistics were supplied by South Africa (3) for conducting Nuclear explosions by Israel.. US journalist Seymour M Hersh in the Samson Option quoted that Israel and South Africa conducted three nuclear explosions and there was no confirmation from either of them (2). South Africa in 1993 declared that it had nuclear bomb but had dismantled the Bomb. Israel has maintained ambiguity over the issue and the world is sure that it has arsenal in it’s basement. Vanunu, a Israeli technician in 1986 revealed to Sunday Times, London that the plant at Dimona has 150 MW capacity corresponding to 50 Kg Plutonium per year and 10 Nuclear weapons per year capacity. These weapons were smaller but more efficient that the first type weapons made by USA, Russia, UK and France (3). These revelations did not do much damage and in fact increased the deterrence and the policy of ambiguity continues. This policy would probably continue as long as there is no direct nuclear threat from the Middle East enemies to Israel. The technician however has undergone long prison sentence for his betrayal.

For Israel, the idea of an enemy with nuclear weapon is totally un acceptable. All Middle East rivals of Israel are sure that Israel is packed with nuclear weapons in it’s basement. This is evident from the limited objectives of war in 1973 by President Anwar Saadat of Egypt. In 1991 war with US after occupation of Kuwait, Saddam Hussein did not fire Chemical weapons into Israel. As per the revelation of former Iraqi General Air Vice Marshal Georges Sada (4), Saddam Hussein ordered his air force to attack Israel, if US was going to attack Iraq to give up Kuwait. Three types of Chemical Weapons, nerve gas Tabun as well as Sarin 1 and 2 were to be dropped on Israel. The Iraqi aircrafts to be used were Russian Shukhois, French Mirages and MIG fuelled accordingly and they would penetrate Jordan and Syria without their knowledge and attack Israel to drop chemical warheads. However, the mission never materialized. Iraq developed cold feet and fired only routine Scud missiles with TNT explosives on Israel and they did not do much damage. Israeli Bomb was a great deterrent. Scud missiles fired by Iraq in no way developed into ‘do or die’ situation for Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir refrained from ordering any military action against Iraq although hawks in the government pleaded for action stating abstention from retaliation would undermine Israel’s deterrence (5).

The most important and disastrous threat looming on Israel ever since it was established is the threat from fundamentalist Iran that is desperately trying to acquire nuclear potential. Although Iran does not have a direct border with Israel, it’s emergence as a strong power in the region with deep hatred towards Israel is dangerously alarming. Iran is trying to infiltrate Russian territories by sending Mullahs after fall of USSR to extend it’s area of influence and emerge as a major power. President of Iran, Mohammed Ahmedinejad has openly declared and has gone on record that he would use the Nuclear Weapon against Israel and the Jewish State has to be wiped off from the face of earth (6) (7). In view of this statement, Israel has to become more alert and also becomes more rigid in it’s views in defending itself against the threat of Iran. Nuclear Iran will threaten Middle East and this will lead to arms race in the region. Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Emirates and Egypt would be threatened. Rebels in Turkey and Iraq, Hamas, Hizbollah would get strengthened. But today, US forces are at a stone throw distance from Iran and this is a plus point to Israel.

Iran’s nuclear threat would be substantial, once they acquire the potential. Iran was developing missiles with range 1400-2000 Km covering Israel and large portions of Europe. In fact, it is the threat from a regime that has vowed death to America since it’s foundation and regularly announces that it would turn Persian Gulf in to a sea of blood and destroy Israel with nuclear missiles. Since 1981, Iran has launched proxy attacks on USA through intelligence networks (8). TWA flights 800 off coast Long Island on July 1996 was suspected to be due to terrorists of Iran. The threat was ignored. In 9/11 plot, Iran had meetings with high level Al Qaeda leadership and provided passports, safe haven, intelligence assistance and secure communication and training in explosives and hijacking of aero-planes. But USA did not retaliate (9) although Iran, Iraq, Talibans and North Korea have been considered as an evil axis (10). The new anti Semitism means not just hatred of Jews and Israel, but also hatred of America and West. Many Muslim leaders are actually spending money to spread their anti- American lies. By continuing to ignore them and their threat, the US is in danger of loosing the war on terror (11). Iran also was acquiring long-range bombers. It has supplied Hizbollah with 13000 short and medium range rockets such as C 802 (80-100 miles range), FAJR-3 (20-30 miles range) and Katyusha (10-20 miles range), which have been used by Hizbollah in the recent conflict with Israel. In the words of Knesset member Steinitz, Chairman of FA and Defense Committee and a political hawk, a black curtain will come down on Israel and the Middle East and whole world (12). Thus, Iran from behind the seen is fully abetting Terrorism and would be a grave threat not only to Israel, but also to entire West. In an exclusive interview with Newsweek’s Richard wolffe, President George W Bush said “he thinks those suspicions are legitimate. There are a lot of people who believe that the Iranians are trying to exert more and more influence over the entire region and the use of Hizbollah is to create more chaos to advance their strategy” (13). Iran has emerged as an evil in the Middle East and to the world. Notoriously Iran thrives on berating the Arch demon America and its egregiously corrupt western value system. The very concept of western is cursorily used as an ideological scarecrow against which lay Iranians may measure the platonic ideals of the Islamic Republic (14). After the fall of Shah of Iran, US supported Saudi Arabia in his war against Iran, financed groups of Sunni fundamentalists against USSR. Iran has entered in to a pact with present Syrian president to allow uninterrupted arms shipments to Hizbollah. Literally, Syria has turned to be an ally of Iran. Iran is also known to have trained Iraqi insurgents in building shaped charges for battling coalition forces. Iran also supports Al Qaeda although it is a Sunni outfit. It supports Shias in Iraq in their fight against Sunni sect.

How does Israel react? Israel has made its intentions clear on various occasions. Shaul Mofaz, Defence Minister of Israel in a broadcast to Iran on State Radio Kolyisrael said, “If there will be a need to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability, the necessary steps will not harm Iran’s civilians”. Chief of Staff Lt Gen Moshe Yaaln said, “We don’t rely on others”. His successor Lt Gen Dan Haultz said,” we will rely on others until we have to rely on ourselves (15).” Can it go for pre emptive action against Iran’s nuclear facilities?. Can it destroy all such facilities? Iran also would have distributed and dispersed her facilities at different places anticipating air strikes. Israel earlier struck Iraq’s nuclear facilities with success. Can it repeat with success against Iran? Land operation assisted by Naval and air forces by Israel is fraught with risks as Israel does not have a common border with Iran. Iran however has poor air defense system. The distances between Bashehr and Israel where Russia completed 1000 MW Reactor in 2005 and Esfashon where centrifuges are located are with- in 930 Miles. Israel has F 151 aircrafts with range of 2765 miles and F 16 aircrafts with bigger fuel tanks can fly 1300 miles. The Heavy Water plant under construction at Arak in Iran is also within striking range of Israel. The tunnels made by Iran at Nanaz are deep and fortified. Israel has to drop laser and satellite guided Bunker Buster bombs, BLU 109 that were used by USA at Tora Bora caves in Afghanistan in their attacks on Bin Laden hideouts. These Bombs can penetrate and destroy 30 feet of earth or concrete. As per sources, 500 such bombs were to be received by Israel and obviously these are not meant for Palestine front. Point to remember is that Iran cannot respond directly and it activates Hizbollah in Lebanon. The recent conflict in Middle East is an example. According to Terrorism analyst Magnus Ranstarp, an expert on Hizbollah, who is now at the Swedish National Defense College, Hizbollah’s decision-making body includes two Iranians. According to a former Israeli General and Labor party member of the Knesset, Ephraim Sneh, “Hizbollah is not a Lebanese Organization, It is a proxy for Iran”. Attack by Hizbollah with short range Rockets and Katyusha Rockets can cause serious disruption of life in Israel. In the recent war Hizbollah’s radar- guided missile seriously crippled the Israeli warship at Haifa and as per former Mossad’s Director Danny Yatom, Iranians launched the long rage rockets, like the C-802 ones that hit the Israeli port city of Haifa. The finger that pulled the trigger was an Iranian finger” (16). Thus Iran would conveniently use Hizbollah via Lebanon to disrupt Israel. The chance of launching a nuclear warhead from the next-door Lebanon based Hizbollah cannot be ruled out which could be existential threat for Israel.

Arabs have been waging war against Israel right from the day of its founding on 29 November 1947 and it lived by sword all these years. After it’s stunning victory in 6 day war of 1967 against combined armies of Arabs, Israel has occupied large tracts of areas and these are in it’s possession. Israel has managed to force entire Arab world and international community as well to accept the legitimacy of 1948 borders even though they went beyond 1947 Jewish approved State. Generally, it is also believed that Israel’s uncompromising stance and intimidating attitude as regional super power threatened territorial integrity and political stability of her Arab neighbors. Her policies of stubbornness resulted in it’s international isolation. As a policy, all the African, Asian and all Muslim nations vote against Israel in all forums.

The Arab states have finally reconciled to existence of Israel. Israel’s iron wall philosophy, and USA being it’s strong ally and also Ben Gurian’s doctrine of offensive- defense backed by ultimate nuclear deterrence has changed Arab attitude towards Jewish state. It is also necessary to understand that peace in the region has to be established only by Israel and Arab States. Jews and Muslims tend to pay great reverence to their past history and are greatly obsessed with their history. Past is always the enemy of present and past history in no way would inspire Muslims for a peaceful stay with Jews. By this time, Palestinians must have learnt the futility of constant warfare with Israel. No Salaadin with a shining sword is going to arrive on a galloping white horse to throw out the Jews lock stock and barrel in to the vast waters of ocean and create Palestine State (17). Similarly in the past history, Israel was destroyed twice and this has been attributed to it’s inability to adjust and accommodate with reality. For the last 70 years Israel has lived under collective death sentence hanging over it’s head. They have all the reasons to be nervous, scary and frightened (18). The Jews have suffered centuries of persecution, exile and even mass murder. Arabs and Palestinians are no way better. Arabs have suffered years of colonial imperialism, oppression and exploitation. By law, those who suffered should come together. But this is not happening in the case of Jews and Arabs. Israel lost 2687 men in Yom Kirrup 1973 war, which were 3.5 times the casualties in 1967 war. This is equivalent to US loosing 240,000 men. Arabs lost 71000 men in 1967 and 19000 in 19973 conflict. Thus, we see that already innumerable lives have been lost on both sides.

Peace cannot wait for democracy to arise. Peace must precede. Complete peace with Israel also does not suit Arabs rulers. Constant enmity and projected threat from Israel helps the Arab dictators to stay in power in their countries. They spread constant Israeli and American hatred and the 1956 Sinai Campaign and 1967 Six Day War was their own doing and they suffered. If peace has to be established, conflicts must end. Both sides must accommodate. There should be a policy of give and take on both sides if peace has to be established.. But peace must be made and one has to make peace with enemy not because you have wronged him or you have been wronged by him (19). But because he is your enemy you must make peace to live in harmony. But how peace can be achieved when a nation declares that its sole aim is to wipe off Israel from earth and also declared death to USA and England?

Brow beating must stop. Irresponsible statements to wipe off Israel from the surface of earth must stop from countries such as Iran. Speaking at a conference “the world without Zionism”, President Ahmedinejad said” To those who doubt, to those who ask is it possible or those who do not believe, I say accomplishment of a world without America and Israel is both possible and feasible”. (20). Such irresponsible utterances will drive Israel to become more stubborn in view of the grave threat and because the survival of the State is at stake. The United Nations and Security Council have to play a great role in reigning rogue states by resorting to various sanctions and military actions if required to cut them to size. This was also a good case to disqualify it from the United Nations. But these actions should be taken most expeditiously. The threat of Iran to world peace and existence of Israel has already been greatly neglected and time is running out. Once the cat is out of the bag, it will be very difficult to put it back in the sack. Iran is rapidly inching towards attaining nuclear status and it has made it’s intentions very clear. In all literal terms, it has declared war against Western powers and Israel. There is a great unhappiness in the US against President George Bush for the intervention in Iraq and for the deaths of US soldiers. Anti Bush sentiment has been systematically built considerably that is a major source of worry for the Government in view of the impending elections in US. Can President George Bush in view of dissidence take a strong action against Iran to cut it to size in view of grave threat it poses to the world peace and security? If Democrats gain power in future do they project a strong leader who can save national prestige and keep Al Qaeda at bay. Any backtracking on terrorist issue by Americans would soon spell doom to the nation in years to come as terrorists would gain upper hand and very soon Americans would be battling the Terrorists on the streets of New York and Washington. Iran has repeatedly declared death to America, Israel and England. Iran has great historical past, culture and civilization. They are not Arabs. Till the regime of Shah was overthrown and taken over by Mullahs, it was on a path of modernity. With rise of Shiite Mullahs, fundamentalism has grabbed the power and it is essential for the World States to ensure that democracy returns to Iran. Slowly, Iran is inching towards the path of Taliban ruled Afghanistan that finally resulted in Chaos and it’s own destruction. People of Iran are in need of democracy and are clamoring for it. They need liberation.

The first action of the sane world powers is to ensure that Iran is freed off the fundamentalist regime of Mullahs and restore democracy. The peace in Middle East cannot be established without subduing and defanging Iran militarily. It is essential to cut it to size, disarm, limit its role and promote democracy in the country. Preaching Israel to be a white and pious and holy Swan among black Crows is not fair. At times, wars have to be fought to restore peace. With subdued Iran, outfits such as Hizbollah and Hamas and others can be controlled. One cannot expect Israel to wait it’s own destruction while Iran goes ahead with sole aim of dropping the Bomb on Israel to wipe it off the earth. Past histories have also proved that the nations representing violence, terror and hatred have disappeared from face of the earth in course of time and as per natural law.

Israel must continue peace talks individually with it’s neighbors and sign individual accords. Israel should know that peace and territory both couldn’t be obtained simultaneously. Similarly, Arabs should realize that they couldn’t get away with territories without offering full peace and recognition to Israel. Anwar Saadat after Yom Kirrup war of 1973 could recognize that former USSR could offer only war while America could negotiate peace with Israel (21) and signed a peace treaty in 1979 with Israel accepting Israel’s existence. This however resulted in his assassination in 1981 by the fundamentalists. Similarly, Jordan too signed a peace treaty with Israel in Feb 1999. Efforts should be made to bring other nations such as Syria, Lebanon and Palestine Authority to the table of discussions to forge lasting peace. However, these efforts would have some success only when Iran is fully neutralized and it’s threat is removed.

Unfortunately, Western powers such as France, Italy, Germany, Spain and Russia have not actively and materially supported UK and US in their wars against terrorism. They have shown only lip sympathy with an attitude of ‘Cat on the wall’. Brave Australia however has been with UK and US in their fights against terrorism. Powerful nation such as China keeps away and clandestinely negotiates with States exporting terrorism on supply of military hardware and technology (22). India wears a veil of pseudo secularism and poses as apostle of peace in the world and goes around preaching peace to all and sundry and is struggling precariously holding onto a democratic institution that has emerged as a mockery to democracy in view of irresponsible multi party system devoid of any notable virtues. Among Indian Muslims, anti American hatred is very high. Although India continues to suffer the onslaught of international terrorism, it is yet to join the international war on terrorism along with western powers. Having been colonized by western powers for centuries, it still is haunted and suffers from the inherent anti western phobia and identifies itself with those suffering from the feeling of wronged nations. It is necessary for these powers to come together and launch all out effort to destroy the common enemy and evil of terrorism emanating from Middle East countries. Experts are very strong in view that US and it’ allies would prevail in their fight against international terrorism (23).

Bibliography

1.Michael Kerpin, Bomb in Basement (How Israel went Nuclear and what that means for the world, Simon and Schuster, New York, 2006, ISBN 13-978-0-7432-6594-2, PP 359

2. Ibid, 342

3.Carnegie Endowments for international peace, non-proliferation, Chapter on Israel for tracking non-proliferation in 1998 as cited in www.ceip.org/program/npp/issue/htm. 1250 pm, 3 Sept 06

4.Geoges Sada, with William Nelson Black, Saddam’s secrets, Integrity publishers, 5250, Virginia way, Suite No. 110, Brentwood, 2006, ISBN 1-591445-404-1

5.Michael Kerpin, Bomb in basement, Simon and Schuster, New York, 2006, PP 350

6. Sheikh Muhammed Mahmood Siyam. Palestine movement is on the true line of Islamic jihad, Reported by Correspondent, Radiance views weekly, Published by Board of Islamic Publications, New Delhi, India, Volume XL NO 28, Date 27 Nov -3 Dec 2005, PP 14, Jerome R Corsi, Atomic Iran, WMD Books, Nashville, Tennessee, USA, ISBN 1-58182-540-3

7. Editorial, Total evacuation, the only Solution, Radiance views weekly, Published by Board of Islamic publications, New Delhi, India, Volume XL, No 25, Date6-12 Nov 2005, PP 5

8. Kenneth R Timmerman, Countdown to crisis, Three river Press, New York, ISBN-1-4000-5369-2, PP 3

9. www.iran.org and www.kentimmerman.com

10. Bob Woodward, Plan of Attack, Simon and Schuster, 1230 Avenue of Americas, New York, USA, 2004, ISBN 0-7432-5547-X, PP 87-88

11. Kenneth R Timmermann, Preachers of Hate, Islam and the war on America, ISBN-1-4000-5373-0. 2003, Amazon. com

12. Michel Kerpin, Bomb in Basement, Simon and Schuster, New York, 2006, PP 353

13. Christopher Dickey, Kevin Peraino and Babak Dehghan Pisheh, The hand that feeds the fire, Newsweek, Volume CXVIII, No 4, July 24, 2006, PP 25

14.Lila Azam Zangenesh (Editor), My sister guard your veil, my brother guard your eyes, Beach Press, Boston, ISBN-0-8070-0463-4, PP xii, xiii

15. Michael Kerpin, Bomb in basement, Simon Schuster, New York, 2006, PP 354

16. Christopher Dickey, Kevin Peraino and Babak Dehghan Pisheh, The hand that feeds the terror, News week, ISSN Volume CXVIII no 4, July 24,2006, PP 26

17. Amos Oz, In the land of Israel, Harvest in translation, Harvest Books, 6277 Sea Harbor drive, Orlando. Florida, USA, ISBN-0-15-648114-6, PP 251

18. Ibid, PP 252

19. Ibid, PP 258

20. Safa Haeri, Asia Times, 28 October , 2005 as cited on line at www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_east/GJZ8Ako3.html 0715 Pm on 05 Sept 2006P

21. Shlomo Ben Ami, Scars of war, wounds of peace. Israeli Arab Tragedy, Oxford University Press, 2006, PP 315

22. Paul Johnson, Indispensable Friendship, Forbes, Volume 178, Number 5(ISSN 0015 6914) 60 Fifth avenue, New York, 10011,USA Sept 18, 2006, PP 41

23, Steve Forbes (Editor –in- Chief), We will prevail, Forbes, Volume 178, Number 5(ISSN 0015 6914) 60 Fifth Avenue, New York, 10011, USA, Sept 18, 2006, PP 35-36

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