Somalia, A Potential Sanctuary for International Terrorists

Prof Dr Colonel (Retired) K Prabhakar Rao

Roots for disintegration of African Somali state, which was created in 1960 from Italian and British colonies, lie in breakdown of traditional society and role of country as Cold War proxy of both U.S. and Soviet Union in battle to control strategic Horn of Africa. The East African failed country overlooks the entry into Red sea just opposite to Yemen that lies in south of Saudi Arabia across the other side of the straits. This is the important entry point for ships passing into Suez Canal via Gulf of Aden through narrow passage between Djibouti and lower most tip of Yemen ( Bab el mandeb), the most important connection between Atlantic and Pacific oceans via Mediterranean, Arabian and Indian Oceans and through connecting seas. It is natural that world’s most powerful nations have great interest in such strategic locations and like to dominate them. US is no exception. Blockade of Gulf of Aden is possible for any Navy only when it dominates the  Gulf waters and the narrow passage at Djibouti and Yemen. Thus, it attains a very great importance militarily, tactically, commercially and strategically. The country of Somalia is torn apart into shreds by the fighting tribes. Siad Barre’s Darod clan benefited most from widespread corruption fueled by large influx of foreign aid, arousing envy of other clans. Ready availability of weapons led to military uprisings that were brutally put down, leading, in turn, to generalized clan-based action against Siad Barre, who ultimately fled January 1991. Removal of long-time Somali leader Siad Barre 1991 led to anarchy and violence in Somalia. Subsequent collapse of central government created vacuum rapidly filled by rival political faction leaders-turned-warlords. U.S.-led attempt December 1992 to protect food convoys to victims of famine manipulated by warlords and metamorphosed into abortive attempt, in cooperation with UN mission, to oust leading warlord Mohamed Farah Aideed. U.S. force withdrew late 1993 after botched military operation left 18 U.S. troops dead. UNOSOM II, second UN mission, withdrew March 1995. Islamic sympathizers in third world as usual beat their chest claiming that it was a victory over America by the Muslims and dance with ecstasy and jubilation.

Series of peace talks failed to achieve agreement on new Somali government until August 2000, when Abdikassim Salat Hassan elected transitional president by various clan leaders at gathering in Arta in neighboring autonomous Djibouti. Violence fuelled by clan-based faction leaders unhappy with Arta arrangement persisted until 2002, when 21 factions and Abdikassim’s transitional government signed ceasefire at fourteenth set of peace talks, this time sponsored by Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), East African regional body. After further two years of talks, 275-member parliament chosen by clans sworn in Nairobi, Kenya, August 2004.Despite election of Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed as Somali president and appointment of Professor Ali Muhammad Gedi as PMi, Transitional Federal Government (TFG) remained extremely fragile, and divided into armed camps: one led by president and prime minister, based in Jowhar; the other led by speaker of parliament and coalition of faction leaders, based in Mogadishu (1).

There is a widespread consensus that US's global war on terrorism is moving towards Somalia, a country suspected by the US of sponsoring and harboring terrorists. This suspicion is obviously based on the general condition of Somalia and the existence of Islamist movements of which some of them are political. Political Islamic movements are probably known to resort to violence and terrorist activities in order to gain a political end. "The US administration is studying countries in which Al-Qaeda could function and is taking a particular interest in Somalia," said former Secretary of State Colin L. Powel in interview with Washington Post. General Richard Myers, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US army earlier said that there were strong indications that show Al-Qaeda had a link with Somalia. However, the details of those links were not described openly. Also some regional diplomats could not go further than to say it had 'influence' within the justice system in Mogadishu and in the transitional national government and within the government of Puntland, the autonomous state of northeast Somalia, and that Al Qaeda gave it money when it ran into financial crises in recent years. Furthermore, US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Walter Kansteiner, after a shuttle between Addis Ababa and Nairobi reportedly said, "the US had reason to believe terrorist cells existed in Somalia, and that Al Qaida was linked to Somalia's Al-Ittihad Al-Islami group."

The Somali president and head of the Transitional National Government in a interview by Dr. Bob Arnot of MSNBC asked that if allegations made by warlord Hussein Aideed's SRRC [an Ethiopian-backed umbrella of opposition groups] was true. President Abdiqaasim said, "Members of Binladin's Al-Qaeda or other people associated with this group were not present in Somalia. The Americans, the UN Security Council staff and the international media were all welcome to Somalia in order to investigate these allegations and see for themselves because we don't have anything to hide." Contrary to this in Addis Ababa three Somali warlords called for international military intervention in their country, saying Osama Binladin's Al-Qaeda group and other foreign terrorists had bases in Somalia. The warlords cited bases in and around Mogadishu, the southern port city of Kismayo and Bosaso, and their surroundings.

Based on deductive grounds (indirect evidences), Somalia appears to make a high potential candidate in promoting terrorism internationally.. Somalia is primarily a Muslim country and does not have a functioning government since the collapse of the state in 1991. The failed state has a long coastal line, which is readily permeable to infiltration of foreign terrorists. Being also very poor, it is possible that alliances, security and other operational services may be purchased at relatively low cost. The country is also inhospitable, inaccessible and dangerous to westerners, intelligence and non-governmental organizations. By these criteria and the power of deduction Somalia makes the short list and a perfect candidate, at least in the first phase of listing potential countries that may harbor or assist international terror cells operating with or without the consent of its segmental governing bodies. Collin Powell said, "Somalia makes itself ripe for misuse by those who would take that chaos and thrive on the chaos. That is why we're really looking at Somalia - not to go after Somalia as a nation or a government but because Somalia is a place where terrorists suddenly find haven." (2)

There were some US military actions against too against suspected terrorist positions in Somalia. The Naval destroyer USS Chafee fired her deck guns at two or three suspected "high-value terrorist targets" in the Puntland area along the northern coast of Somalia , U.S. officials told NBC News. The three suspects are accused of taking part in the 1998 bombings of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. According to the officials, the U.S. had "actionable intelligence” gathered by U.S. Special Operations Forces and local tribal leaders that the suspects were in the area. Out of fear that the suspects would leave the area, the decision was made to order the strike from the Chafee, which fired 20 five-inch rounds from her deck guns. The Chafee was the U.S. military's closest asset, the officials said. Air strikes would have come too late. There has been no battle damage assessment to determine if any of the suspects were killed or wounded in the attack, the officials told NBC News. One of the suspects, Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, had also been targeted in December in air strikes by U.S. AC-130 gun ships in Somalia. He is the leader of the East Africa cell of al-Qaeda and is believed to be the mastermind of the Al-Qaeda attacks in 1998 on U.S. Embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, that killed more than 200 people (3).

Professor Ken Menkhaus, of political science at Davidson College (North Carolina) and a former special advisor to the U.N. operation in Somalia in his Assessment of Al-Ittihad, the Islamic organization believed to be a link to AlQaeda has revealed following (4):-

1. Somali involvement with Islamist agenda runs a wide and shifting spectrum. Most Somalis tend to support and sympathize Islamic issues at least in rhetoric even if some of them are not especially devout.

2. Some Somalis are very devout and promote greater and deeper Islamisation of the society but are not political. Al-Islah activities fall under this category.

3. But otherwise, they are political and embrace activities such as the expansion of Shariat Courts to maintain law and order but are uninterested in Islamic state.

4. Of those who support Al-Ittehad, some view it as tactical and short-term affiliation, others a real commitment.

5. Of those committed to Al-Ittehad, most are concerned with domestic aims such as the establishment of an Islamic state in Somalia but not an overseas agenda.

6. Even among those few Somalis who want to harness Al-Ittehad for violence abroad, they are primarily focused on waging jihad against Ethiopia.

7. The number of Somalis who actively support Al-Ittehad as part of a global struggle are by all accounts very small in number.

The outcome of investigations into Al-Ittehad
following September 11 there was some concern among American officials that Al-Ittehad represented a legitimate threat as per Ted Dagne, a specialist in African affairs at the US Congressional Research Service. But he said that investigations into Al-Ittehad proved otherwise and that large-scale military strikes against the group are unlikely. He added that Al-Ittehad does not pose a major threat to US interests because it simply doesn't have the ability to carry out a terrorist act globally.

Prof. Ken Menkhaus assessment of the terrorist threat coming from Somalia is summarized (4):-

1. Somalia is inhospitable terrain for Al-Qaeda and related terrorist network

2. It features unpredictable alliances.

3 It features an absence of secrets

The above reasons indicate that Somalia is not suitable as permanent base to serve Al-Qaeda or similar networks. However, Somalia is very attractive for short-time operations such as trans-shipment base in moving materials, equipment and men through the country as a passage to East Africa and Ethiopia.

US/EU policy considerations on Somalia:

These are:

1. The neglect and disengagement policy on Somalia needs to be reversed. Surely Somalia needs their assistance in order not to become a transshipment country for international terrorists, where potential growth of terrorists can occur, or where ethnic conflict grows rapidly

2. Regional self-governments such as the one in Baydhaba, Puntland, Somaliland and the National Transitional Government (NTG) need encouragement and assistance in moving towards appropriate democracy and market economy.

3. Engagement policies of the US/EU need to focus on decentralization, business communities and empowerment of the civil societies.

4 Avoid over-reliance on Ethiopia, and choosing some local Somali factions over others

5 Who does the international community work with? For the time being, it is best to work with legitimate groups who are really governing: providing services, police, courts, education, health, removing trash and so on in all the emerging self-government territories.

6. The US should not resort to military intervention (punitive ones) and instead choose preventive measures and engagement policies.

Thus, Somalia could turn into a grave potential home land for transit terrorists and as a good hiding ground. The country is highly destabilized and it is most essential to build a stable government in Somalia under international observation so that stability is achieved. This would enable law and order in the country. Only military intervention would not yield result and would result in further destruction. Third world critics, arm chair specialists and strategists and pseudo strategists invariably do not conform to actions of west in tackling terrorism. They all perceive America to be on a wrong path always although back at their homes every thing is bungled.

Mr. Raman a writer from India on strategic matters recommends that an important lesson from Afghanistan and Iraq is the danger of under-estimating the motivation and resilience of the jihadi forces. How to prevent the recent Afghan history from repeating itself in Somalia? This cannot be done by non-Muslim forces. Muslim countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco etc have to be encouraged to take the initiative in bringing about an Islamic solution to the problems of Somalia, which will not serve the agenda of Al Qaeda and the International Islamic Front (IIF). The time has come to encourage these countries to come together in a strategic alliance with the twin objectives of countering ----with Islamic and not Western arguments and tactics --- Al Qaeda and the IIF on the one side and Iran on the other. Islam of Al Qaeda brand poses a threat to the peace and stability of this region today. Iranian machinations could pose an equal threat tomorrow (5).Mr. Raman could be correct in his own way. However US that is battling terrorism globally fully knows much what is better for it. Only the guy whose skin is burnt in fire knows how painful it would be and where it would be.

Bibliography

1. Crisis in Somalia, www.crisisgroup.org, http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=1232&gclid=CMjntayNyowCFQVwTAodxVP9WA

2. Somalia verses international terrorism. Is there a link? http://72.14.235.104/search?q=cache:G_ZhKJ8fh68J:www.ogaden.com/somalia_versus_international_ter.htm

+Somalia+and+international+terrorism&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=4

3. By Jim Miklaszewski, Chief Pentagon correspondent, NBC News, Updated: 9:34 p.m. ET June 1, 2007, Navy ship fires at al-Qaeda suspects in Somalia, Destroyer USS Chafee targets suspect in 1998 Africa embassy bombingshttp://72.14.235.104/search?q=cache:TcA-71a3Sw8J:www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18989827/

+Somalia+and+international+terrorism&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=2

4. Eng. Abdulkadir Abiikar Hussein, London, the United Kingdom, Somalia verses International Terrorism- the link, http://72.14.235.104/search?q=cache:7lTjZ4uG4KwJ:www.somaliawatch.org/archivedec01/020105201.htm

+Somalia+and+international+terrorism&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=3

5. B. Raman Paper no. 2075 Somalia: Jihadis emulating Taliban’s Tactics, International terrorism Monitor- paper No..16928.12.2006 http://72.14.235.104/search?q=cache:jjFOpCE8GHgJ:www.saag.org/%255Cpapers21%255Cpaper2075.html

+Somalia+and+international+terrorism&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=9

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