WAR DRUMS ARE HEARD AGAIN

                            WAR DRUMS ARE HEARD AGAIN

                      Prof Dr Colonel ( Retired) K Prabhakar Rao

                       The Iran problem is again making rounds with saber rattling by every one.

Iran that is feverishly pursuing its quest for nuclear status has recently fired few Long Range Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (LRBM) that has potential to seek American targets at different locations around the world and is viewed as a direct threat to American ally Israel (1). The show of strength came three days after U.S.-led warships finished naval exercises in the Gulf  that Iran branded as "adventurist” Iran  remains locked in dispute with the West over its nuclear program, which Washington says is geared to producing atomic weapons but Tehran says is only for generating electricity.  Iran’s state-run media reported that one of them was a modified Shahab-3 ballistic missile, which has a claimed range of 1,250 miles and could theoretically deliver a one-ton nuclear warhead over Israeli cities. Tel Aviv is about 650 miles from western Iran. General Hossein Salami, a senior Revolutionary Guard commander, boasted that “our hands are always on the trigger and our missiles are ready for launch”.

               These missiles are no doubt capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Things have become hot with the latest development. Iran has been pursuing its nuclear policy in spite of international sanctions and restrictions all these years. However it has been insisting that its policy is for peaceful purpose such as for energy needs. Every country said similar things in past including India and has acquired nuclear bombs calling the nuclear explosions for peaceful purpose. However there are no takers in the world for this silly argument. Pakistan soon followed. But it did plain talk and said it would not hesitate to drop bomb on Indian cities if necessary. India however declared that it would not be the first one to drop in its usual Gandhian style (May his soul rest in peace after having been shot by Godse in 1948).

                     Iran drew the wrath of super powers and the other western nations when its President in over enthusiasm declared that he would wipe off Israel from the map of the world once it acquired the nuclear status. This was an unwarranted, unfortunate and irresponsible declaration by a Head of a State (2) by all means. Others have now equal right to defend themselves in anticipation. Israel in similar circumstances carried out a surprise attack on Iraq’s nuclear facilities during the regime of Saddam Hussein and destroyed the facilities (3). Iraq never recovered from the blow and rest is history now. Are we heading for similar situation? Enough of saber rattling the world has witnessed all these years by western powers and Iran too as a reaction. Iran is emerging as the replacement of Iraq in the region and as the spokesman for the Islamic world. But its hatred towards Sunni Saudi Arabia is well known and demonstrated. Is it now necessary to cut it to size before it assumes proportions of mammoth for world stability. Islamic world has been always been harping on the superiority of Islam and the need for converting entire world into Dar ul Arab where only Islam would remain. Whether some one likes it or not, the entire world today is polarized into Islamic and non-Islamic groups.

               In the latest development, the American President has reportedly given his nod to Israel for a preparation for a military attack on Nuclear facilities of Iran,  in case the present efforts and talks fail in containing Iran from going nuclear. The US President has given an amber light to start preparing for a possible offensive on Iran (4). “Amber light means get on with preparations, stand by for immediate attack and tell us when you are ready”. 

However the Israelis have also been told that they can expect no help from American forces and will not be able to use U.S. military bases in Iraq for logistical suppor.
It seems, however, that the Israelis have already been using U.S. bases in Iraq to train for the coming attack. There have been denials all around – from the Iraqis, the Americans, and the Israelis – but both the Iraqi media and the Israeli media have reported, as the New York Post put it, that "Israeli warplanes have been flying over Iraq and landing at U.S. bases there in preparation for an attack on Iran." The Iraqi Web site Nahrainet reported Israeli fighter jets have been in rehearsals, so to speak, for their much-anticipated strike at Iran, flying at night over Jordanian airspace and arriving at U.S. air bases in Nasiriyah in southern Iraq and near Haditha in western Anbar province ( 5). Generally it is  perceived that Iran has to be pushed back by atlesat 5 years.Even that may be beyond Israel’s competence if it has to act alone in the military attack. Obvious targets would include Iran’s Isfahan plant, where uranium ore is converted into gas, the Natanz complex where this gas is used to enrich uranium in centrifuges and the plutonium-producing Arak heavy water plant. But Iran is known to have scattered other elements of its nuclear programme in underground facilities around the country. Neither US nor Israeli intelligence is certain that it knows where everything is.
“Maybe the Israelis could start off the attack and have us finish it off,” Katzman aformer CIA analyst added. “And maybe that has been their intention all along. But in terms of the long-term military campaign that would be needed to permanently suppress Iran’s nuclear programme, only the US is perceived as having that capability right now. (6)”

              Thus we find that Middle East is inching towards the war. As the term is getting closer for the US president  it appears that pressure from Israel on USA is building up for a nod  for the attack on Iran’s  nuclear facilities. The serious implications would be the rise of oil prices due to the inevitable naval blockade by Iran for shipment of oil and the consequent economic chaos around the world.  How this has to be overcome?  Only Israel cannot wipe out Iran’s facilities as they are wide spread. Soon US air force and missile forces have to barge- in and  finish off the war permanently crippling Iran. As usual,  third world countries would  rise in protest with India at the top. But who cares for them. In all probabilities, Iran war could be also an influencing factor on American presidential election where struggle between a native black American and a white is going on. Obama has favored negotiations with Iran that Israel hates. It wants Iran to be permanently suppressed or else their existence is at stake. War appears very much possible with retaliation by Iran. Generally it is  seen that  Islamic countries do more saber rattling and  then collapse like pack of cards under determined Western high tech military might. It happened with Afghanistan and also in Iraq recently and many times in Arab Israeli wars in the past. Iran too would collapse like pack of cards in case the attack is carried out.Use of smaller nukes are not ruled out in such confrontation to destrot deeply entrenched facilities in Iran. It  is also possible that  the government of Mullahs would collapse after the  attack on Iran. Let us wait and see.

1.Nasser Karmi, Associated press writer,  Iran Test-firesLonger Range Missile, Breitbart.com,  Non 2, 2008, 08:13,

2. Sheikh Muhammed Mahmood Siyam. Palestine movement is on the true line of Islamic jihad, Reported by Correspondent, Radiance views weekly, Published by Board of Islamic Publications, New Delhi, India, Volume XL NO 28, Date 27 Nov -3 Dec 2005, PP 14, Jerome R Corsi, Atomic Iran, WMD Books, Nashville, Tennessee, USA, ISBN 1-58182-540-3,  Editorial, Total evacuation, the only Solution, Radiance views weekly, Published by Board of Islamic publications, New Delhi, India, Volume XL, No 25, Date6-12 Nov 2005, PP 5

3.Prof Dr Colonel ( retired) K Prabhakar Rao,  Nuclear threat and Israel, faithcommons.org October 19, 2006, 13:18

4. Bush nod to Israel war plan, Deccan Chronicle, Hyderabad, AP, India, Date  July 14, 2008 , PP 1

6.Uzi Mahnaimi in Washington, "  President Bush backs Israeli plan for an attack on Iran,The Times, Information clearing House, 3/07/08  

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